http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20140702a.htm.
CHAPTER 4: HOW AND WHY THIS BOOK IS ORGANIZED
1. Andrew G. Haldane, “Growing, Fast and Slow,” speech at the University of East Anglia, Norwich, England, February 17, 2015, http://www.bis.org/review/r150219b.pdf.
2. Mohamed A. El-Erian, When Markets Collide: Investment Strategies for the Age of Global Economic Change (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2008).
PART II: CONTEXT: THE RISE, COLLAPSE, AND RESURRECTION OF CENTRAL BANKING
1. Martin Wolf, “We Are Trapped in a Cycle of Credit Booms,” Financial Times, October 8, 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1a9f058e-4d43-11e4-bf60-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Lfv9pY4D. For a detailed analysis, see Martin Wolf, The Shifts and the Shocks: What We Have Learned—and Have Still to Learn—from the Financial Crisis (New York: Penguin Press, 2014).
CHAPTER 5: THE GOLDEN AGE OF CENTRAL BANKS AND “BUBBLISH FINANCE”
1. Joan Robinson, “The Economics of Hyperinflation,” Economic Journal 48 (September 1938).
2. Mohamed A. El-Erian, When Markets Collide: Investment Strategies for the Age of Global Economic Change (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2008).
3. For an insightful discussion of this and more, please see Raghuram G. Rajan, Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2010).
4. “Paul Krugman: Here Are 5 Big Things Paul Krugman Says He Got Wrong Over the Years,” Business Insider, November 2014, http://www.business insider.com/big-things-paul-krugman-got-wrong-economy-2014-11.
5. William C. Dudley, “Economics at the Federal Reserve,” remarks at the American Economic Association 2014 Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2014/dud140104.html.
6. Atef Mian and Amir Sufi, House of Debt: How They (and You) Caused the Great Recession, and How We Can Prevent It from Happening Again (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2014).
7. Mark Carney, “Inclusive Capitalism: Creating a Sense of the New Systemic,” speech at the Conference on Inclusive Capitalism, London, May 27, 2014, http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2014/speech731.pdf.
CHAPTER 6: CASCADING FAILURES
1. Michiyo Nakamoto and David Wighton, “Bullish Citigroup Is ‘Still Dancing’ to the Beat of the Buyout Boom,” Financial Times, July 10, 2007, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5cefc794-2e7d-11dc-821c-0000779fd2ac.html.
2. As late as September 2014, the popular media was still on this point. As an example, the money section of the September 18 edition of USA Today included the headline “Fed Sings Wall Street’s Tune.” And the drivers of the accusation, both real and perceived, went well beyond what former Treasury secretary Geithner noted in his memoir, Stress Test, that “the optics of the institution’s governance are awful. The Fed has always been vulnerable to perceptions of capture by the big banks.”
3. Robin Harding, “Transcripts Reveal Drama and Fear as Fed Confronted Lehman’s Implosion,” Financial Times, February 21, 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ec1c3a5a-9b0f-11e3-946b-00144feab7de.html.
4. Sam Fleming and Shawn Donnan, “Fed Feared Japan-Scale Crisis in 2009,” Financial Times, March 5, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d77aff2c-c28d-11e4-ad89-00144feab7de.html.
5. Jeremie Cohen-Setton, “The 2008 FOMC Transcripts: Did the Committee Obsess over the Wrong Crisis and the Performance of Key Personalities,” Bruegel Blog Review, March 3, 2014, http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1258-blogs-review-the-2008-fomc-transcripts/.
6. “A Desperate Plea—Then the Race for a Deal Before ‘Sucker Goes Down,’ ” Guardian, September 26, 2008, http://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/sep/27/wallstreet.useconomy1.
7. Neal Collins, “Archaic BoE Was Ill-Equipped to Prevent Financial Crisis,” Financial Times, January 9, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d3db1f52-9752-11e4-845a-00144feabdc0.html.
8. Joshua Zumbrun and Alaa Shahine, “Retired Bernanke Harbors Regret on Main Street’s View of Bailout,” Bloomberg News, March 4, 2014, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-04/bernanke-says-u-s-economy-seeing-progress.html.
9. Timothy F. Geithner, Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises (New York: Crown, 2014).
CHAPTER 7: CENTRAL BANK RESURRECTION
1. Mario Draghi, speech to the Global Investment Council, European Central Bank, July 26, 2012, http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2012/html/sp120726.en.html.
2. Jack Ewing and Binyamin Appelbaum, “A Stress Test for Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank,” New York Times, January 3, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/04/business/stress-test-for-mario-draghi.html.
3. Philip Turner, “The Exit from Non-Conventional Monetary Policy: What Challenges?,” BIS Working Paper 448, 2014, May, http://www.bis.org/publ/work448.pdf.
4. “Monetary Policy Struggles to Normalize,” BIS Annual Report, June 29, 2014, Bank for International Settlements, http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2014e5.htm.
5. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Parsing Draghi’s QE Gambit,” Bloomberg View, January 23, 2015, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-23/parsing-draghi-s-qe-gambit. See also Mohamed A. El-Erian, “The ECB Can Only Buy Time for Europe’s Politicians,” Financial Times, January 22, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/957b9ddc-a241-11e4-bbb8-00144feab7de.html.
6. Tracy Alloway, “Markets’ Misplaced Faith in Central Banks,” Financial Times, January 23, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2ad516fa-a2d4-11e4-ac1c-00144feab7de.html.
7. Hyman Minsky, “The Financial Instability Hypothesis,” Working Paper No. 74, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, 1992.
8. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Beware of Calls for QE4,” Financial Times, October 17, 2014, http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2014/10/17/beware-of-calls-for-qe4/.
9. Chris Giles, “Carney Warns on Low Interest Rates,” Financial Times, January 24, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c20266fe-a3fb-11e4-b90d-00144feab7de.html.
10. Timothy F. Geithner, Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises (New York: Crown, 2014).
CHAPTER 8: SETTING THE STAGE
1. Jim Grant, “Monetary Policy Is a Virus That Infects Politics,” Financial Times, January 5, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/14078740-9277-11e4-a1fd-00144feabdc0.html.
2. “The World Economy: In Need of New Oomph,” Economist, May 24, 2014, http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21602698-how-make-rich-worlds-recovery-stronger-and-safer-need-new-oomph.
3. “In Search of a New Compass,” Bank for International Settlements, June 29, 2014, http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2014e1.htm.
4. E. S. Browning, “The ‘Investor’s Dilemma’: Everything Is Expensive,” Wall Street Journal, August 24, 2014, http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/08/24/the-investors-dilemma-everything-is-expensive/.
5. Lawrence H. Summers, “Reflection on the ‘New Secular Stagnation Hypotheses,’ ” in Coen Tuelings and Richard Baldwin, eds., Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes, and Cures (London: CEPR Press, 2014), http://www.voxeu.org/sites/default/files/Vox_secular_stagnation.pdf.
CHAPTER 9: THE QUEST OF A GENERATION
1. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “The Global Growth Quest,” Project Syndicate, April 9, 2013, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-worldwide-search-for-new-growth-models-by-mohamed-a--el-erian.
2. Matt O’Brien, “Greece’s Poor Are Back to Where They Were in 1980,” Washington Post, April 10, 2015, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonk blog/wp/2015/04/10/greeces-poor-are-back-to-where-they-were-in-1980/.
3. “Mohamed A. El-Erian Discusses PIMCO’s Secular Outlook and Investment Implications,” Economic Outlook, PIMCO, May 2009, http://europe.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Secular%20Outlook%20Q%20and%20A%20May%202009%20El-Erian.aspx.
4. Jim Pearce, “The New Normal—Six Years Later,” Investing Daily, January 30, 2015, http://www.investingdaily.com/22053/the-new-normal-six-years-later-2/.
5. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “The ‘New Normal’ and Its Consequential Morphing,” Journal of Indexes, November 22, 2013, http://europe.etf.com/europe/publications/journal-of-indexes/articles/9398-the-new-normal-and-its-consequential-morphing.html?start=6&Itemid=200.
6. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “ ‘The New Normal’ Has Been Devastating for America,” Business Insider, March 22, 2014, http://www.businessinsider.com/el-erian-state-of-the-new-normal-2014-3.
7. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Europe Must Pay Heed to Japan’s New Slide,” Bloomberg View, November 18, 2014, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-18/europe-must-pay-heed-to-japans-new-slide.
8. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Could America Turn Out Worse than Japan?,” Reuters, October 31, 2011, http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/2011/10/31/could-america-turn-out-worse-than-japan-2/.
9. Lawrence H. Summers, “U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound,” Business Economics 49, no. 2 (2014), http://larrysummers.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/NABE-speech-Lawrence-H.-Summers1.pdf.
10. Christine Lagarde, “The Challenge Facing the Global Economy: New Momentum to Overcome a New Mediocre,” speech to Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, October 2, 2014, http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2014/100214.htm.
11. Gauti Eggertsson and Neil Mehrota, “A Model of Secular Stagnation,” NBER Working Paper No. 20574, National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2014, http://www.nber.org/papers/w20574.pdf.
12. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Confronting Persistent U.S. Economic Slump,” Bloomberg View, April 21, 2014, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-04-21/confronting-the-u-s-economic-slump.
13. Martin Wolf, “Why America Is Going to Win the Global Currency Battle,” Financial Times, October 12, 2010,